2023 PGA Championship: Expert picks and betting tips

The 2023 PGA Championship begins Wednesday at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. World No. 1 Jon Rahm and World No. 2 Scottie Scheffler head the list of notable golfers poised to win the Wanamaker Trophy at the end of this weekend. Scheffler goes into the second major of the year with a strong win at AT&T Byron Nelson and two wins (Phoenix Open and Players Championship).

Can Scheffler keep up his blistering pace or become the first man since Jordan Spieth to win the first two major championships in a season?

Where is the betting value? Will the favorites prevail? Our golf and betting experts will tell you everything you need to know to bet on the 2023 PGA Championship.

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Expert tips for winning | Betting with value tips to win | Notable Golfer Odds | props and more

expert tips

Tory Barron, ESPN.com
Winner: Brooks Koepka: Remember that scene in “Billy Madison” where Adam Sandler’s character catches a dodgeball and says to the rest of the class, “Now you’re all in big, big trouble?” That’s the energy that a healthy “Big- Game Brooks” I think will take him to the PGA Championship – an event he’s already won twice – fresh off his second-place finish in Augusta.

Elizabeth Baugh, ESPN.com
Winner: Rory McIlroy: There’s a lot of talk about the toll the game has taken on McIlroy, but the fact of the matter is that it can’t be ignored. Oak Hill is a course he knows and suits his game (he’ll need that distance off the tee). The weather that worries others will not be a problem for him.

Michael Collins, ESPN
Winner: Jon Rahm: Haven’t we seen this movie yet? McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Koepka… they all went through a period where they looked unbeatable. Cream is in this mode right now. And winning the first two stages of the Grand Slam would light the fuse of the golfing world.

Michael Eaves, ESPN
Winner: Tony Finau: In the shadow of Rahm and Scottie Scheffler, Finau has quietly made a solid start to the season. More importantly, he has the feel and now the confidence to finally break through to his first major championship.

Peter Lawrence-Riddell, ESPN.com
Winner: Tony Finau: He appears to be the favorite for the “first major winner” en route to Oak Hill. Won twice on tour this year and finished top 25 in 11 events out of 14 played. Also it would be really cool to see him with his family on Sunday.

Andy North
Winner: Xander Schauffele: he plays well Now is the time for his big victory!

Mark Schlabach
Winner: Xander Schauffele: Sooner or later Schauffele will win a Major, so why not this week? He finished 10th at the Masters, his 16th top-25 finish in 23 starts at Majors. He leads the tour in approach shots from 150 yards to 175 yards, which will be important at Oak Hill, and he’s in the top 10 in shots won: approach to green (.961), launch to green (1.510) and overall (2,065). He’s finished in the top 10 in his last four starts in stroke play competitions, including a second-place finish at the Wells Fargo Championship, so he’s got plenty of momentum.

Curtis Strange, ESPN
Winner: Scottie Scheffler: The short game will be a crucial factor in this tournament and he’s number 1 in the world for shots made from the tee.

Paolo Uggetti, ESPN.com
Winner: Tony Finau: It’s finally here. Finau has always had the game and talent of a great winner, but he failed several times. He has shed the notion that he can’t win by winning four PGA Tour events in the last two seasons. If that’s the case, the PGA Championship at Oak Hill looks like the place to be.

Scott Van Pelt, ESPN
Winner: Scottie Scheffler: It was shocking that he missed the cut at a class he loves last year. He has played well and is eligible to pursue a second major here at a venue that suits his ability.

Wright Thompson
Winner: Rory McIlroy: His wife is from the Rochester area and he’s a member of Oak Hill and there’s no greater motivation in the world than to impress your in-laws.

Betting with value tips to win

Our betting experts give you winning tips based on value. We look at the betting board and tell you who has the best chance of cashing in your tip.

Anita Marks, ESPN Betting Analyst
Winner: Scottie Scheffler (+650)

Why he will win: Scheffler finished in the top 5 at the Byron Nelson last week and could have won if his flatstick had performed better. He ended up at the Masters with a T-10 finish and has seven top-10 finishes in 14 majors. Scheffler has nerves of steel on the big stage. He ranks first on greens this season in Regulation, Strikes Gained Tee-to-Green and Par 4s.

Tyler Fulghum, ESPN Betting Analyst
Winner: Collin Morikawa (28-1)

Why he will win: The value of Morikawa is too great to come by here. He’s a two-time major champion including the 2020 PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park. He often seems to play his best golf in the majors, with six top-10 finishes in his most recent major starts. Because Oak Hill has been lengthened and the fairways are still narrow, he has the combination of distance and accuracy needed to score well on this course.

Michael Collins, ESPN Betting Analyst
Winner: Dustin Johnson (25-1)

Why he will win: With the best will in the world I can’t understand how Johnson is doing 25-1. When DJ tells us he’s doing well, we should believe him.

Doug Kezirian, ESPN Betting Analyst
Winner: Cameron Young (30-1)

Why he will win: Armed with a new caddy and length from the tee, Young could be successful at Oak Hill as long as his short game is decent. He’s been solid over the past calendar year, earning three top-7 finishes in the last four Majors. Hopefully he breaks through then.

Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN Betting Analyst
Winner: Sungjae Im (35-1)

Why he will win: If Collin Morikawa ranked 10th overall on the tour in strokes shot and entered the PGA Championship with six straight top 20 finishes and three straight top 8 finishes, you would probably award him with an award of see about 22:1. But the resume I just gave you doesn’t belong to Morikawa, it belongs to Sungjae Im, which is priced at 35:1. That’s what we call “value”.

Odds of winning the 2023 PGA Championship