Week 13 of the NFL season concludes Monday night with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 40.5) hosting the New Orleans Saints at Raymond James Stadium (ESPN, 8:15 ET).
After an exciting Sunday promotion, this week we have another opportunity to bet on professional football. So which games do our analysts like the most?
ESPN Stats and Information Set Walder and soccer misfits Aaron honey provide their top plays for the matchup.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 40.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, at Raymond James Stadium
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers host Alvin Kamara and the Saints in a crucial NFC South matchup. The Buccaneers come out Monday night favorites to win this game and currently have -430 to win the division. What are your thoughts on this matchup and the NFC South race?
Treasure: At -430, it’s a little too rich for me to win the division with the Buccaneers, but I’m happy to take Tampa Bay -3.5 in this game. Tampa Bay was better than his record and is currently ranked 10th in the DVOA. The defense is seventh and even the pass offense is still tenth. Tampa Bay’s big problems were luck and the running game. Compare the Buccaneers to the Saints, who rank 25th overall with average defense and both poor offense and special teams. Especially considering offense is more forward looking than defense, I’m going to Tampa Bay on Monday night.
The Saints have successfully restricted Brady in past matchups between these two teams. Brady’s passing props for Monday night are 272.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. See Brady having a big night against the Saints, or will New Orleans put the brakes on him again?
Treasure: I’m not sure if this is the same New Orleans defense that has done such a good job of holding Brady back over the past few years. There are many injured. If I were a Saints fan I would be particularly worried about Marshon Lattimore who has such a great history of slowing down Mike Evans but also hasn’t played since week 5. Without Lattimore, I think Tampa Bay can definitely throw at the Saints — and they have to because the running game has been so problematic.
Rookie wide receiver Chris Olave has been one of the bright spots for New Orleans this season. He currently leads all Saints receivers with 56 receptions and 822 yards on 92 goals. Olave has the second-best odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year (+550) and his receiving prop for Monday night is 56.5 yards. See Olave have a big game against Tampa Bay runner-up and can he pass Kenneth Walker III in the rookie race?
Walder: Yes and yes. First I will lean towards Olave over 60.5 meters here. My model matches that number exactly, but I still like the Over because it doesn’t include our receiver tracking metrics, where Olave shines. Serious! He ranks sixth overall among all receivers and tight ends, behind only AJ Brown, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Tyler Lockett and Justin Jefferson. That’s it. Get this man a quarterback! And that’s also why I think he’s a great value for OROY. He’s already three times the size of player Walker and would easily vote for me if I had one. I’m surprised he’s not the favourite.
https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/35179086/saints-vs-buccaneers-monday-night-nfl-betting-odds-picks-tips Betting tips for ‘Monday Night Football’