Tropical depression forms in Gulf of Mexico, will bring rain to Florida
Counterclockwise spin hurricane hunters are inside investigating this. My friend is tropical depression too. Yeah. And it, it looks like here maybe within the last hour or so. There’s some additional thunderstorm development or convection that’s, uh, at least somewhat close to the center. And this is mainly if you cut this in half, north, south, *** lot of this is on the eastern half. Yeah, there’s *** lot of wind shear and that’s the reason that this hasn’t exploded and become *** big powerful hurricane or anything to that point, but very normal for this may slash June weather pattern where we’ve got upper level winds that are kind of filtering into it. I’ll show you the, the water vapor channel. This looks about half way up in the atmosphere. And, uh, Jeremy think of this like an x-ray, right? Just kind of looking at the environment upstairs around the storm system. Yeah. And it looks like, uh, you have dry air, especially to the west and south of it. But then uh in and around the center where you have those pink colors that’s uh, representing uh higher water content and that’s where the thunderstorms are, right? But there’s *** lot of that wind shear kind of sheering all of that moisture over toward the east, which is why there’s *** ton of moisture east of Florida out over the Bahamas. And, and, and what’s happening is the storm system is trying to fire up these storms over that center of circulation, but the upper level winds are kind of sheering it apart. So at this point in time, we don’t anticipate this to become *** big bad hurricane. That’s certainly good news. Nobody wants to see that, but it, it’s, it’s trying and you got to kind of give the storm credit where credit’s due. So five AM advisory is the latest advisory from the national hurricane center. Uh, Windsor 35 miles an hour pressure is at 1000 7 millibars. But, uh, Jeremy, there’s *** recon mission in there and we’ve been finding that pressure steadily dropping, uh, over the course of the last few hours time. Yeah, you have some awesome graphics that show, uh, that can kind of track the hurricane hunters when they’re within these storms. I think what we’re just waiting for right now is, uh, not necessarily the wind gusts. There’s some tropical storm force winds in there. Uh, we’re waiting to see if there’s maybe *** little more closed off low, uh, as they do some of these drop signs into the storm, right? So think of this. So, so this is *** really ugly graphic and this is not something I would be showing on TV. But what we’re looking at is the raw data from the hurricane hunters. It’s zigzagging through the storm system. Ok. And what it’s doing is it’s leaving breadcrumbs. It’s dropping pieces of data on here to show us wind intensity and wind direction. And specifically what we’re looking for is the turning of the wind. So you can kind of see here, for example, this is getting into the weeds, right? But you got like *** southwest wind, *** north northwest wind and then it kind of up here turns more of *** like northeasterly direction. So what I think the hurricane hunters are doing right now is they’re trying to see if there’s *** closed off low because we see on their, uh S F M are their step frequency microwave Radiometer or however you say that we see tropical storm force winds, they’re barely removed from the center of circulation. So, based on wind intensity, Jeremy, this could qualify as being *** tropical storm. But is it tight enough? Is it, is it an open broad low or is it *** closed off low? And that’s the difference between this being *** tropical depression and being *** tropical storm? Right? Do you know how much longer, uh, their mission is, how much longer they’ll be flying around in there? Yeah. So the mission runs from seven AM until 1 30 this afternoon. Everything. Ok, over there. Yeah, I’ll get maybe I’ll just get him over here. You can, uh, you can, uh, take me off here for one second. Ok. All right. You got, we, we have dogs. We’ve got dogs, we got to do our thing. That’s ok. But yeah, so when we look at the recon mission, um, that’s in the air right now, um, the hurricane hunters are in there now. They’ve been in there since seven o’clock this morning. And, uh, the expectation is that they’re going to be in the storm system, uh, through about 1 30 this afternoon. Then there’s *** bit of *** break, *** crew change if you will, and then we’ll be able to get to the next mission which will get into the storm at about seven o’clock tonight and go through the overnight. It’s important to note though when we look at the overall forecast from the National Hurricane Center. Ok. This is *** storm system that is not expected to have *** very long life cycle. Ok. Uh, yesterday, the first cone did call for *** tropical storm intensity today through about tonight and then weakening to *** tropical depression and, and then Saturday to Sunday, you see that, that l is without *** circle around it. So, uh, that is *** remnant low essentially. So the idea here is that over the next few hours time the wind shear starts to increase, thus impacting the storm system. So even if it were in the next few minutes time given an opportunity to strengthen to Arlene Jeremy, it would be *** very short-lived upgrade. Yeah, and that was kind of the forecast the entire time was if it ended up being named, it was maybe 12, 24 hours, something like that. Probably the number one question I got on social media yesterday and I know you, you kind of touched on this but why kind of the, the very weird track where it’s like maybe in the northern Gulf and then it heads down towards Cuba. And if you want to put like spaghetti plots on here, uh that low sort of curves around and then starts tracking its way to the northeast. So yeah, there it heads into the southwestern Atlantic and then people are like, oh could it restrengthen? But as we’ve talked about, there’s *** lot of uh wind shear with this not favorable for development. So you need *** lot of things to happen. You can’t just say, well, the water temperature is maybe 80 to 85 degrees. I will for sure have tropical development. Um Sometimes I, I use the reference to like maybe uh baking *** cake or something. If you leave some ingredients out, the end result is not going to be very good. So in this case, here, with the tropical system, several factors in play and we’re maybe just going to marginally and get those to come together to get *** name storm briefly this morning. And if not, this will remain *** tropical depression. It’s really interesting because, and, and this past weekend we were talking *** lot on social media. Both of us about the subjectivity of, of the weather, right? Because you’ve got tropical storm force winds here, but it’s up to the person at the National Hurricane Center and then this is not knocking them at all, but it’s up to the person at the National Hurricane Center to look at this recon data and say, yeah, that’s tight enough or it’s *** little too open and they can always go back and tweak it, go back and adjust it. But it just depends on that interpretation as to if this is *** closed off low or if this is still *** little too open for *** tropical storm upgrade, right? And one thing that we were discussing that we like about this is that hurricane hunters are out there. I due to how close that coastal low was actually last weekend to the southeast coast, I would have loved to have seen some real data from the hurricane hunters. Uh, since it was close to land, uh, would have been *** pretty easy mission to go out there and, uh, get some, some real time data. I would have really been curious to see what some of those actual winds were if they kind of went in different quadrants of that low last weekend and, and maybe they go in there and then they sort of dispel any type of thought that it could have been tropical or subtropical, no doubt about it. So, on to questions that we’re getting Jeremy Chrissy is asking, uh will it bring wind and rain to any land area? And, and you know, I think directly the answer, you know, when we think of tropical systems, we think of hurricanes. Um and, and thankfully, Jeremy, this is not *** hurricane, this is not *** big bad storm. I think indirect impacts to Florida. It, it’s, it just depends if this stays kind of sloppy and loose, then it’s just, it could give Florida an added opportunity for some rainfall. But if it starts to try to organize and, and deepen and deepen, it would actually starve Florida of moisture. Yeah. And it’s uh staying to your west so far. I know parts of your state definitely need some rain. So this would be *** good news and early on in the season, you can get these uh lows that might be really weak. And overall, they are sort of *** net good news if they’re uh bringing uh uh decent amounts of rain to an area, but obviously not enough to like cause flash flooding or something. So, tropical systems have *** benefit to uh coastal areas, islands across the Atlantic Basin and this one maybe will be bringing some appreciable rains if it can uh uh maybe send *** little of that moisture your way Yeah, one thing that’s always interesting and not *** lot of people realize Florida’s climate depends on at least one weak storm system to make landfall to, to, to just soak us. So if this were to try to do something like that, that’s not the worst thing in the world. But this is not going to be that because by the time as you had mentioned, by the time it moves, um south it weakens. So let’s do this, Jeremy. Uh Let’s look at the six Z model data. Let’s start with our in-house models. OK. Um We call this future cast. Hold on *** second. What do you call it up there? Oh Wow. So super creative. OK, great. So love that for us. Um All right. So first off, future cast is initializing this showing kind of the yellows and oranges and the reds. So future cast is initializing this as *** tropical storm as of the six Z run which I I think the um the that model you or you’re showing. Which one are you showing? The I B M? Yeah, the I B M model. I I would say *** couple of days ago, it was *** little bit aggressive with how, how fast it developed this. So, um again, maybe this is showing *** little bias towards it being slightly on the strong side with this particular model and it definitely does, you know, it, it, it definitely does, but notice how it pushes to the south though. All right. So let’s just rewind this. So, here’s today, right? Watch as it pushes south. Here’s Saturday morning, watch those vibrant yellows going away and even those greens going away. And it, it literally collapsing in as it approaches the west end there of Cuba. I, whatever this does try to become, it will quickly lose its luster as it gets further and further to the south. Right? So maybe, maybe it’s our lean otherwise it’s uh hey, we had unnamed storm in January. Now, this is, this is actually, so I, I didn’t even think about it. The 12 run on, on future cast is starting to come in and it’s, it’s still showing, ok. It’s still showing probably tropical storm intensity right in here through this afternoon and then pushing south and unraveling. And that’s as far it, it goes out there that’s as far out as the 12. And, and one thing I’m thinking about is so far we’ve had these things like the coastal low, which maybe it, maybe it could have been subtropical, ended up not being named. Now, you have this system that’s bordering on becoming something. Um National Hurricane Center. Obviously, they go back and look at these, but they’re gonna be put in kind of an odd spot where if they happen to go back and look and they find something that would support this, then we’re gonna have unnamed storm, probably unnamed storm and kind of, kind of an odd thing because when we talk about these on TV, now we’re like, well, we had an unnamed storm. Now we’re actually on to the second name, but it’s the 1st 1st name in the list. And we try to keep things simple for viewers with, again, the line you like to use without getting too much into the weeds. So. Exactly. And that’s what, what people care about is, is this going to impact me or not? Right? Like this is *** nice venue for us to get in the weeds. But we try, you know, we try to keep it as simple as possible. And that’s the difference between like the academia side of things versus the broadcast side of things. Um So 12 Z is, is just starting to initialize on the G F S. So this is the six C run, which is the most recent and the G F S this morning has kept it sub, sub uh sub, let me try this again below tropical storm intensity. So it’s kept it as kind of ***, *** depression and nothing else and you can see it kind of falls apart there. Um And then the European, which I thought was interesting, we’re not going to have but the 60 run on the European. But the European model this morning, Jeremy, same idea, bringing it up to about depression slash storm status but never really crossing over into storms that may be storm but never crossing in much and then weakening, weakening, weakening as it moves down toward Cuba. So, you know, each model, some are trending *** little higher and some are trending *** little lower. But all of the models in unison are showing this weakening as it pushes further and further to the south. Yeah. So, yeah, we’re less than an hour away from probably the final verdict on if this will be named or not. Yeah. And I’m, I’m just looking, I don’t see, I don’t see any updates from the Hurricane Center on the back end. I’ve got, I’ve got some automation. Did I tell you about that? Ok. So I’ve got some automation to kind of check the, the hurricane Center database to give me *** heads up and I don’t have, um, I don’t have any updates, so at least at the moment they’re not changing things around in the background, uh, for an upgrade and, and certainly, you know, it’s, it’s going to be one of those things where I’m guessing they’re going to wait for like *** last push through, uh, the center of circulation to see as I’m refreshing this. I, I would imagine they’re going to probably want one more push through the center of circulation to see what kind of wins are in there before putting out their product. I would. Yes. Right. And the hurricane hunters aren’t far from land. This isn’t *** real far mission for them. So, they can kind of do, do, uh, several passes through. Yeah, they’ve already done, I think, three or four. Let me pull up the raw data here again. This graphic absolutely brings my computer to its knees. It’s just such *** AAA memory intensive product. So, uh, let’s just see. Ok. So they’re, but, but, but let’s go back. So they’re fly, they’re currently flying away sampling the northwest side. So, what my, what my guess would be is that you see them, that’s where they are there. They’re pretty far away. They may even be heading back in actually. Uh, no, they, they’re still within range. I don’t know. Um, the, yeah, I don’t know if they’re heading back in or not. They’re supposed to be in the storm for *** little while longer. So, maybe they’ve got what they need and that’s not and they won’t, uh, upgrade and they’re just done, you know? Right. Ok. Uh, one thing that we want to talk about is since, um, we last did, uh, talked about the tropics on Tuesday, we did get some new information on *** long range forecast. So, uh, most people are familiar with like Colorado State National Hurricane Center there, long range hurricane season forecast. Well, um, Phil Plat at Colorado State, the lead, uh, researcher there that uh puts together the hurricane season forecast. Uh, his initial forecast that came out in April was 13 named storms and then yesterday, uh, he does an update to start. The hurricane season has increased that to 15 names storms. And we had talked about this on our tracking the tropics, uh, episode that we did on, uh, on Tuesday. Uh, we knew I had chatted with Phil and he said that he was probably going to have to up his numbers. So from 13 to 15, from 6 to 7 and from 2 to 3. But when we look now at all of the forecasts as they stand currently, uh, that puts Colorado State’s forecast in, in the big goal posts that are the NOA forecast, but it now puts Colorado State into your and my hurricane season forecast as well. Yep. And we back on March 1st went 14 to 18 name storms based on several different factors. Uh Again, we’ll see how things play out, but I’d say the forecast now are, uh, um, kind of started to line up *** little bit. Yeah. Yeah, I, I think that, I think that we’re starting to real well. We, we had, again, we had done this in, in, um March, but, you know, I think that everybody’s realizing that yes, El Nino is approaching, but at the same time, um we have to realize that the water temperatures are anomalously hot, the hottest that they’ve ever been heading into hurricane season as an Atlantic Basin as, as such, that will play in, into the overall numbers. So we’ll see if this gets named or not. That will certainly count to this board. Um, but no, you know, nobody’s cheering for storms, nobody’s cheering for, um, impacts, I think at the end of the day and as we talked about on Tuesday, once this potential little system gets out of the Gulf and heads into the southwest Atlantic, uh, June may quiet down. There’s *** couple of little parts of the pattern we’re watching, but I think there’s *** much greater potential. We could have *** little busier in July this year. Oh, yeah, 100%. That’s, I mean, that’s what our, that’s what the pattern is, is kind of suggesting. So, um, that’s, that, that’ll be something to watch. There’s *** couple of little pieces of the puzzle, you know, during June. But as far as like near land elements, I, I think that, yeah, I think that we’re, we’re probably going to be running. Um, just, just *** little bit quieter. Ok. People before we wrap this up, does anybody have any good questions? Chrissy is asking Jeremy, how common are hurricanes in the month of June? Mostly August and September? Right? I think it’s, uh, isn’t the number like 5% of names, storms that occurred during the month of June showing that, uh, graphic recently, I’m looking, I’m looking, I’m looking tropical name storms by month percentage. Ok. I’m good. I’m just not that good. Ok. There’s, there, it is. So 5%. Ok. Yeah. So 5% of the name storms occur, uh, during the month of June. Yeah. All right. Other questions. Uh, Terry is hard to believe the storm will flat out, quit on its own with no interference. I mean, it’s getting interference. Yeah. Yeah. Some, uh, wind shear and that’ll strengthen in the days ahead. Yeah, Norman’s asking why do we count fish storms, Jeremy. Uh, I mean, in the satellite era, anything counts and we’ve gotten really good at, um, being able to detect these. Um So, yeah, I mean, anything that reaches the criteria of uh tropical oppression and then eventually maybe tropical storm hurricane gets *** name. It, it counts in the, the season total. That’s why you saw that one back in um January ended up being *** subtropical uh sub tropical cyclone and it was named. Absolutely. Um All right. So Laura Li is asking leaving on *** cruise on Sunday, headed to the Bahamas on Monday and then to Mexico, will this storm be around to affect the path of our ship? Um For what day? Uh leaving on *** cruise? Sunday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday. This is going to be ***, *** ripped apart area of clouds. You may get some showers. Lorelai. I don’t think that it’s going to be much more than that at all. I think anyone in the Southwest Atlantic, the, the waves could be *** little choppy. Yeah, but it’s, it’s not going to be *** hurricane, not going to be *** tropical storm that sort of thing. Yeah, Jamie on youtube. From *** layman’s perspective. It seems as though the National Hurricane Center has gone very conservative in naming the storms. Um, I don’t, I don’t know if I’d say that but, I mean, you’d probably have to look at two years or more coming up. Um, I mean, there is *** new director at the National Hurricane Center. I, I don’t know him. Maybe you do Eric, but I don’t think, I don’t think the philosophy on the surface is gonna change. I mean, there’s criteria, there’s criteria to name these and like I said, maybe in two years, if, if we see that some systems that are maybe somewhat marginal, *** little bit, like you said, subjective aren’t being named or are being named. Maybe we’ll pick up on *** trend, but I don’t think there’s any you can’t read into that right now. I think what’s happening and, and this is just, this is just my personal opinion. But I think as satellite imagery, I mean, like as satellite imagery gets better, like think about this, this is ***, this is *** visible satellite that we get, we get *** new frame every single minute, we’ve never had that kind of resolution or that update. So I think is satellite imagery and as technology as *** whole gets better, uh Jamie, I think that the Hurricane Center is better able to determine if things meet their criteria or not, you know, think about in hurricane Andrew, think of the resolution of that satellite data they were giving two day advi, you know, there was *** hurricane watch posted two days before this cat five moved into Miami Dade County. I, I just think technology is allowing them to more subjectively look at things. I mean, I could be completely wrong. Jeremy. Yeah. And I don’t, I mean, it’s not like they have an easy job down there because once they name something that sets *** whole another, uh set of, uh, things into motion with the local National Weather service offices, so there’s *** lot of coordination that takes place. But hey, if they think something should be named, I, I mean, I think they’ll name it. Oh, 100%. I mean, just look at this yesterday, they went from *** 20% chance of development in seven days time and in two days time to 70% chance to naming it. So they, they can take write *** rulebook and then throw it out if they feel that there’s, you know, if it meets that criteria. So, you know, and I think that we’re all as *** society just trying to keep up with technology. I think technology is evolving quicker than our own minds. You know, I think that’s the truth. Um Terry’s asking so wind shear has *** powerful enough or wind shear has to be powerful enough to blast *** storm like this to fall apart. Without any impact. Yeah. It, I mean, it can just take the top of it. You need almost all the variables to be perfect in place, especially if you’re talking about like the development of *** hurricane or something like that. Um Right now we just have *** depression and the, um, the winds are even impacting uh something that the small, not something, not organized. And, and when you, you know, and it’s like when you look at, when you look at this, this is the water vapor channel, we had talked about it, but like *** storm needs to ventilate, *** storm needs to breathe. And when you’ve got *** bunch of dry air on *** thing that needs moisture that’s hampering it. And you see all of these jet streams there, that’s *** lot of wind shear, wind shear. It’s kind of like, think of it. Like you’re driving your car and you hit *** gust of wind and you feel your car shake. Right? Well, you don’t like that. So you have to correct, well, for *** storm to get stronger and stronger, it can’t spend its energy correcting. It wants to just grow and so dry air and wind shear, keep these storms calmer and calmer. That’s just the way that it runs. Um, West two news is asking from the main page. Thomas asks, do you think that we’re going to see our first names storm sometime this month? I would say, why not 5% of the name storms happen. Water, temperatures are hot even if it’s *** fish storm. Jeremy, your thoughts? I mean, last year, what was it? Our third name storm occurred. It was Colin and that was in, uh, around July, kind of 1st, 2nd, 3rd time frame, very short lived, but that was the third name storm. Um, obviously we’ve had one that was back in January, but our, our first name storm, I think there’s *** chance that this month we could get something that, that develops. And if it’s not right now might be the back half of the month. Oh, yeah, the back late June into July, we’re going to really notice things, uh, dialing up and getting more and more active. So, um, and, and for right now it’s, it’s good to note and I love to say this, that, uh, things are pretty quiet as *** whole other than this thing in the Gulf. It’s not like, uh, there’s chaos ensuing, but this thing in the Gulf is in an area that we do typically have to watch this time of year. Jeremy. Yeah. And it, this little depression is right over that sort of tan colored area where formation is maybe slightly more likely this time of year. And remember only 5% of name storms occur during the month of June. But if, uh, there is *** favorite area, it’s definitely that eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico, Jennifer, uh Jennifer is asking, will this storm continue to cycle through as possible, bigger storms during hurricane season? Uh, Jeremy, I mean, this is the Nicole part of the pattern. But I think that the reason that this hasn’t had the opportunity to develop is because the favorable area is east of Florida. Yeah. And I mean, every single time that these things cycle through, especially early in the season, um, *** lot of times we don’t even expect it to develop. But if we see *** reflection of it, it’s *** sign of, hey, all right, we have two more cycles to go in hurricane season with this particular part of the pattern. So this is definitely something. Uh, I think the September version, if there wasn’t *** named storm during it, I would be shocked. Yeah. No, I, I definitely agree. So again, let’s just, let’s just leave it at this. Um, *** live look at minute by minute updates on tropical depression too within the next few minutes time. Uh, we do expect an update from the National Hurricane Center on this, whether or not they’re going with an upgrade. Of course, as I’m saying this, Jeremy, I’m getting *** vortex message from the hurricane hunters. Um, ba ba ba, you talk for *** second. Let me read this. Ok. All right. So what you’re looking at there, we still have the, the visible satellite up and the part that, uh, looks kind of bumpy and solid white and *** little more texture there. Um That’s the thunderstorms developing *** little bit closer to the center of circulation. So, uh that’s the area we are watching. If thunderstorms would continue to grow, the convection built uh closer to that center. Uh And maybe if, if we could even get *** little some smaller development there on the west side of the circulation, um maybe we’d be looking at *** tropical storm. But did you find out anything there? Yeah. So they extrapolated the pressure down to 1000 1 millibars, which would be indicative of it continuing to deepen. But is it, what is it open enough or is it closed off enough? They, they had 15 knot winds in the center of circulation? So it, you know, it’s not dead calm and they found the maximum wind was 46 knots about 51 nautical miles from the center. So the winds are, that still shows the wind shear but 46 knots, you know, that’s 50 and change MPH. So, if this can close itself off it, it would be *** tropical storm. The question is, has it closed itself off enough? Right. So, we have the 11 AM update. Um, they don’t, unless there’s something special. They’re not really doing the two PM, I think. And then uh five PM is the next one. So you have 11 AM five PM and if it’s not named, then probably not going to be. Yeah, and it looks like the hurricane hunters are heading back. It looks like they’re done. So my, my guess my guess is that they’re going to, you know, it’s, it’s *** subjective call, but they’ve, they’ve gotten the data that they need for that. So we’ll see what happens in the next couple of minutes. Hey, thank you everybody for joining us, uh, from central Florida. I’m West, two meteorologist, Eric Burris and I’m chief meteorologist Jeremy Nelson at W J CIO in Savannah, Georgia. All right. We’ll see you guys and gals on Tuesday for our next regularly scheduled update of tracking the tropics. Thanks for joining.
Tropical depression forms in Gulf of Mexico, will bring rain to Florida
ABOVE: WESH 2’s Eric Burris and WJCL’s Jeremy Nelson team up for a deep dive into Tropical Depression 2Tropical Depression Two formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, the first day of the 2023 hurricane season. As of Friday at 11 a.m., Tropical Depression Two was about 270 miles west of Fort Myers and 345 miles north-northwest of the western tip of Cuba.TD 2 had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and was churning south at 5 mph. The National Hurricane Center said in the 11 a.m. update that the system remains poorly organized. “The system is expected to move southward to southeastward and accelerate its forward speed somewhat during the next day. During this time, the depression is expected to move along the western side of a mid-level trough over Florida and east of a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico,” the NHC said. “The Hurricane Hunters will continue investigating the system for the next several hours, and a short-lived increase to tropical storm intensity cannot be ruled out. However, conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for intensification later today and tonight.”Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with localized higher amounts up to 5 inches are possible through Saturday across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. If the system had intensified, it would have been named as Tropical Storm Arlene. Tropical Depression Two is our second tropical system of the year. We had a subtropical system develop in the northern Atlantic back in January.Related: WESH 2 Hurricane Survival Guide 2023Related: WESH 2 2023 Hurricane Season ForecastBELOW: Stunning video shows tropical system from spaceRelated content:Hurricane preparedness: Essential steps to protect yourself and your homeHow to prepare for flooding produced by hurricanesHurricane watches, warnings: What they mean and what to do duringTop headlines:Police: 4 children, 5 adults shot near beach in FloridaPolice: Baby dies after parents leave her in car to go to church in Palm BayMan goes overboard on Carnival cruise off Florida coast, Coast Guard says
ABOVE: WESH 2’s Eric Burris and WJCL’s Jeremy Nelson team up for a deep dive into Tropical Depression 2
Tropical Depression Two formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, the first day of the 2023 hurricane season.
As of Friday at 11 a.m., Tropical Depression Two was about 270 miles west of Fort Myers and 345 miles north-northwest of the western tip of Cuba.
TD 2 had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and was churning south at 5 mph.
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The National Hurricane Center said in the 11 a.m. update that the system remains poorly organized.
“The system is expected to move southward to southeastward and accelerate its forward speed somewhat during the next day. During this time, the depression is expected to move along the western side of a mid-level trough over Florida and east of a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico,” the NHC said. “The Hurricane Hunters will continue investigating the system for the next several hours, and a short-lived increase to tropical storm intensity cannot be ruled out. However, conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for intensification later today and tonight.”
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with localized higher amounts up to 5 inches are possible through Saturday across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula.
This content is imported from Twitter.
You may be able to find the same content in another format, or you may be able to find more information, at their web site.
If the system had intensified, it would have been named as Tropical Storm Arlene.
Tropical Depression Two is our second tropical system of the year. We had a subtropical system develop in the northern Atlantic back in January.
Related: WESH 2 Hurricane Survival Guide 2023
Related: WESH 2 2023 Hurricane Season Forecast
BELOW: Stunning video shows tropical system from space