Grammys 2023 Predictions: Who Will Win, Who Should Win?

After a year without an audience and a year in Las Vegas, the 65th Grammy Awards return to normal Sunday night with a full house at the ceremony’s longtime home, the Crypto.com Arena in downtown Los Angeles.

The top nominees include Beyoncé with nine nods, followed by Kendrick Lamar with eight, and Adele and Brandi Carlile with seven each. Among the other superstars in the mix for the big prizes are Bad Bunny, Harry Styles, Lizzo and Taylor Swift.

Here are our predictions for how the night will pan out in 10 top categories, with the caveat that the thing about the Grammys is nothing is off the table. Just ask last year’s standout surprise artist, Jon Batiste.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR
ABBA, “Journey”
Adele, “30”
Bad Bunny, Un Verano Sin Ti
Beyonce, “Renaissance”
Mary J. Blige, “Good Morning Dear Ones”
Brandi Carlile, “In These Quiet Days”
Coldplay, “Music of the Spheres”
Kendrick Lamar, “Mr. Morale & the Great Steppers”
Lizzo, “Special”
Harry Styles, “Harry’s House”

Should win: Beyonce, “Renaissance”
Will win: Brandi Carlile, “In These Quiet Days”

What can one say of an award that pits Beyoncé’s deeply researched “Renaissance” against an album that features Coldplay’s Chris Martin singing, “We’re only human / But we’re Capable of Kindness / So they call us humankind.” “? Yes, the Grammys’ flagship award has some significant structural issues, not least the fact that musicians can’t even agree on whether an album is what everyone should be worried about. With two inexcusable losses – including one where winner Adele admitted she didn’t deserve to win – Beyoncé is the intellectual (and emotional) favorite this time around. But insiders say Carlile, a dedicated Grammys hobbyist who helped bring legendary Joni Mitchell back to the stage last year, may come out on top.

RECORD OF THE YEAR
ABBA, “Don’t put me down”
Adele, “easy on me”
Beyoncé, “Break My Soul”
Mary J. Blige, “Good Morning Dear Ones”
Brandi Carlile feat. Lucius, “You and I on the Rock”
Doja cat, “woman”
Steve Lacy, “Bad Habit”
Kendrick Lamar, “The Heart Part 5”
Lizzo, “About Damn Time”
Harry Styles, “The Way It Was”

Should win: Steve Lacy, “Bad Habit”
Will win: Lizzo, “About Damn Time”

Nobody has won this award more times than Bruno Mars, who won his third record trophy of the year in 2022 with Silk Sonic’s “Leave the Door Open”. So think of the category as a safe haven for carefully crafted throwback jams whose success on pop radio reassures older voters that today’s kids still have some sense. Case in point: the finely detailed disco funk of About Damn Time.

SONG OF THE YEAR
“abcdefu” written by Sara Davis, Gayle and Dave Pittenger (performed by Gayle)
“About Damn Time” written by Melissa “Lizzo” Jefferson, Eric Frederic, Blake Slatkin and Theron Makiel Thomas (played by Lizzo)
“All Too Well (10 Minute Version)” Written by Liz Rose and Taylor Swift (Performed by Taylor Swift)
“As It Was” Written by Tyler Johnson, Kid Harpoon and Harry Styles (performed by Harry Styles)
Bad Habit Written by Matthew Castellanos, Brittany Fousheé, Diana Gordon, John Carroll Kirby and Steve Lacy (played by Steve Lacy)
“Break My Soul” written by Beyoncé, S. Carter, Terius “The-Dream” Gesteelde-Diamant and Christopher A. Stewart (played by Beyoncé)
“Easy on Me” Written by Adele Adkins and Greg Kurstin (Played by Adele)
“God Did” Written by Tarik Azzouz, E. Blackmon, Khaled Khaled, F. LeBlanc, Shawn Carter, John Stephens, Dwayne Carter, Williams Roberts and Nicholas Warwar (performed by DJ Khaled with Rick Ross, Lil Wayne, Jay-Z , John Legend and Friday)
The Heart Part 5 Written by Jake Kosich, Johnny Kosich, Kendrick Lamar and Matt Schaeffer (played by Kendrick Lamar)
“Just Like That” written by Bonnie Raitt (played by Bonnie Raitt)

Should win: “All Too Good (10 Minute Version)”
Will win: “Easy for me”

It seems crazy that the most consistent songwriter of her generation has never won this award (which honors songwriters, while record of the year goes to performers and producers). But with her re-recorded director’s cut of her 2012 masterpiece, Swift, who has been nominated for Song of the Year six times — as often as Lionel Richie and Paul McCartney — faces stiff competition from two longtime Grammy favorites: the 73-year-old Raitt, who is enjoying her first songwriting, nods with a moving and complex story of a mother’s encounter with the recipient of her late son’s transplanted heart; and Adele, whose “Easy on Me” shares about 70% of her musical DNA with her Grammy-winning “Hello.”

Best New Artist nominee Anitta performs at Coachella 2022.

(Christina House / Los Angeles Times)

BEST NEW ARTIST
anita
Omar Apollo
Domi & JD Beck
Moon long
Samara joy
latto
maneskin
Tobe Nwigwe
Molly Tuttle
wet leg

Should win: Omar Apollo
Will win: Molly Tuttle

Barring a clear breakout star à la Olivia Rodrigo or Megan Thee Stallion — and featuring a handful of acts that many Academy members probably hadn’t heard of until they scoured Spotify — this year’s best new artist race is likely to rest on ingrained genre allegiances run out. If that’s the case, consider that Tuttle, a young bluegrass phenom, has no natural competition for voices from the academy’s sizable Nashville contingent.

SONGWRITER OF THE YEAR
Amy Allen
Nah Karl
Tobias Jesso Jr.
The dream
Laura Veltz

Should win: The dream
Will win: The dream

For the first time in a new award, Songwriter of the Year should go to The-Dream, if only for the depth of his work on Beyoncé’s “Renaissance.” But with culture-defining hits stretching as far back as Rihanna’s “Umbrella,” the R&B wizard seems to have the lifetime achievement aspect covered, too — unless Jesso is wooing softies with the sensitive ballads he’s written for Adele and Harry Styles.

BEST POP DUO/GROUP PERFORMANCE
ABBA, “Don’t put me down”
Camila Cabello feat. Ed Sheeran, “Bam Bam”
Coldplay and BTS, “My Universe”
Post Malone and Doja Cat, “I Like You (A Happier Song)”
Sam Smith and Kim Petras, “Unholy”

Should win: Sam Smith and Kim Petras, “Unholy”
Will win: Coldplay and BTS, “My Universe”

With more than 750 million streams on Spotify alone, “Unholy” has the commercial clout and feel-good credentials to be the first song by a non-binary person and a trans person to earn a Grammy nominated title. But after inflicting a defeat on BTS in that category twice in the past two years — and in doing so incurring the wrath of K-pop’s most devoted fanbase — voters might finally throw the boy band a bone.

BEST RAP ALBUM
DJ Khaled, “God Did”
future, “I never liked you”
Jack Harlow, “Come Home, The Kids Miss You”
Kendrick Lamar, “Mr. Morale & the Great Steppers”
Pusha T, “It’s almost dry”

Should win: Kendrick Lamar, “Mr. Morale & the Great Steppers”
Will win: Kendrick Lamar, “Mr. Morale & the Great Steppers”

Lamar hasn’t lost that award since 2014, when voters preferred Macklemore and Ryan Lewis’ goofy “The Heist” to his groundbreaking major-label debut “Good Kid, MAAD City.” And although the gnarly “Mr. Moral” hasn’t released a hit single on the scale of “Alright” or “Humble,” he still embodies many members’ ideas of what a rapper should be.

Willie Nelson is nominated for Country Solo Performance.

(Suzanne Cordeiro/AFP/Getty Images)

BEST COUNTRY SOLO PERFORMANCE
Kelsea Ballerini, “Heart First”
Zach Bryan, “Something in the Orange”
Miranda Lambert, “In His Arms”
Maren Morris, “Circles Around This Town”
Willie Nelson, “To Live Forever”

Should win: Zach Bryan, “Something in the Orange”
Will win: Willie Nelson, “To Live Forever”

Bryan, who was a streaming colossus with his 34-track LP American Heartbreak, was seen by many as the poster boy for star-studded Best New Artist and Best New Album of the Year nominations. But insiders say Nashville spurned him because he’s shown little interest in playing industrial ball; As a result, Bryan might have gotten a measly nomination for the appealingly tattered Something in the Orange. Expect the ever-popular Nelson to win like he did in 2020 – back when he was just 86 years old.

BEST ROCK ALBUM
The Black Keys, “Dropout Boogie”
Elvis Costello and the Imposters, “The Boy Named If”
idle, “crawler”
Machine Gun Kelly, “Mainstream Sellout”
Ozzy Osbourne, “Patient Number 9”
Spoon, “Lucifer on the Sofa”

Should win: Spoon, “Lucifer on the Sofa”
Will win: Ozzy Osbourne, “Patient Number 9”

One wonders if Spoon, Ozzy, and Machine Gun Kelly were ever mentioned in the same sentence before landing in this one-category dog ​​breakfast. Imagine Spoon and the Black Keys going to split the young(-ish) alt-rock voice, and imagine too many Academy members still thinking of MGK as a rapper (if they even think of him). Which leaves a chance for Osbourne’s late-career teamwork with a hit producer, Andrew Watt, known to many Grammy types.

BEST VISUAL MEDIA SONG
“Be Alive” from “King Richard” written by Beyoncé and Darius Scott Dixson (played by Beyoncé)
“Carolina” from “Where the Crawdads Sing” written by Taylor Swift (performed by Taylor Swift)
“Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick” written by Bloodpop and Stefani Germanotta (played by Lady Gaga)
“Keep Rising (The Woman King)” from The Woman King written by Angelique Kidjo, Jeremy Lutito and Jessy Wilson (performed by Jessy Wilson with Angelique Kidjo)
“Nobody Like U” from “Turning Red” Written by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (Performed by 4*Town, Jordan Fisher, Finneas O’Connell, Josh Levi, Topher Ngo and Grayson Villanueva)
“We Don’t Talk About Bruno” from “Encanto” Written by Lin-Manuel Miranda (Performed by Carolina Gaitán, Mauro Castillo, Adassa, Rhenzy Feliz, Diane Guerrero, Stephanie Beatriz and the “Encanto” cast)

Should win: “We don’t talk about Bruno”
Will win: “We don’t talk about Bruno”

Presented as the 67th category (of 91) in the Academy’s official nomination lists, this film music award does not usually attract much attention. But this year is surprisingly packed with superstars, including Gaga, who would love to win a Grammy to propel her to the Oscars, where her power ballad Top Gun is nominated for Best Original Song. One obstacle in their way: Lin-Manuel Miranda’s garrulous “Encanto” ensemble number, the first Disney animated tune to top the Hot 100 since 1993’s “Aladdin’s” A Whole New World.