How Juan Soto trade to Padres is impacting World Series odds

Losing on the magnitude of the Juan Soto trade, the San Diego Padres also got a very strong switch-hitter with 1B/OF Josh Bell, which will help a lineup ranked 20th and 1st on the base weighted average (wOBA). 25 is stroke proportion (SLG). Bell owns a .301/.384/.493 slash with a 142 wRC+ (means he’s 42% above the league average offensively).

An unprecedented trade occurred Tuesday when the Washington Nationals traded 23-year-old superstar outfielder Soto to the Padres in exchange for a huge crowd of prospects and first baseman/designated hitter Luke Voit. Soto’s trade availability came about when he turned down a reported $440 million 15-year extension in July and the Nationals opted to capitalize on his huge trade value.

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DraftKings Sportsbook had one of the higher market prices for the Padres to win the World Series ahead of trading at 20/1 as many sportsbooks proactively cut their odds amid all the speculation that Soto would be sent to San Diego. Minutes before the trade was announced, DraftKings declined to 18/1 and then 12/1 after the odds were temporarily taken off the board as deal details broke on social media.

At the time of publication, the Padres were 11/1 to win their first World Series title in franchise history. They haven’t won a playoff series since 1998 when they were defeated by the Yankees in the World Series.

Soto bats just .246 but has one of the highest on-base percentages in the league at .408 and 20.9% BB%. He has a .485 SLG with 21 homers in 101 games. Soto has dealt with the lowest percentage of fastballs in his career and still owns a 151 wRC+, putting him 51% above the league average offensively. He’s under team control until 2024, and then the Padres will have to make a decision, with Manny Machado signed until 2028 and Fernando Tatis Jr. signed big-money contracts until 2034.

The padres gave up a ransom for a king. They traded four top 85 prospects in baseball, according to FanGraphs. Infielder CJ Abrams is at the heart of the trade as a 21-year-old who has already made it into the big leagues. Left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore has thrown plenty of brilliant flashes despite being on the IL with a sore elbow. The others are outfielders Robert Hassell III and just 19-year-old James Wood. Both have intriguing power and speed tools. Right-handed pitcher Jarlin Susana was also in business.

Abrams will play every day for Washington and Gore will be a rotation game when he comes back. The others are far from the majors.

In the near term, the Padres don’t have much World Series value and likely won’t have much betting value from game to game as the hype surrounding the Soto deal dominates the narrative. The Padres still have 12 head-to-heads with the Dodgers and are 12 games down in the NL West rankings. San Diego is 35/1 to win the division at DraftKings and now +450 to win the NL.

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