How often is Punxsutawney Phil right?

WASHINGTON – Punxsutawney Phil has predicted another six weeks of winter for 2023, but how accurate is his annual forecast?

The annual ceremony in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, dates back to 1887, according to the Library of Congress. But even with over 100 years of forecasting experience, Punxsutawney Phil is certainly far from perfect.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration compared Punxsutawney Phil’s forecast with the national weather situation over the past 10 years and found that “on average, Phil was correct 40% of the time.” Going back to his first prediction in 1887, he was only correct 39% of the time, according to an analysis from the Stormfax Weather Almanac.

During the annual celebration, people gather at the Gobbler’s Knob when members of Phil’s “inner circle” summon the ground squirrel from his tree at dawn to find out if it can see his shadow or not.

According to folklore, if he sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter. Otherwise, spring will come early.

Since 1887, Punxsutawney Phil’s track record leans heavily towards another six weeks of winter.

In fact, the world’s most famous groundhog is said to have predicted an early spring (by not seeing his shadow) just 20 times, according to numbers published by “Inner Circle” of Hound Day.

Meanwhile, he has seen his shadow 109 times (including 2023), although there are 10 years with no record of what happened.

The last time Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow was in 2020 and before that was in 2019, giving a rare dose of his early spring forecast.

But following Thursday’s prediction, Punxsutawney Phil has now predicted another six weeks of winter for three years in a row.

The Associated Press and WKYC’s Ryan Haidet contributed to this report.