NFL betting notes – Jalen Hurts remarkable at home

The 2022 NFL postseason is the most open it has ever entered conference championship week. For the first time in over 45 seasons, no team has +200 or less title odds during the week of the Conference Championship. All four remaining teams have similar title odds and that is reflected in this week’s betting lines.

For the third time in the Super Bowl era, no Conference Championship game has a team preferred by at least three points. That’s happened twice already, in 1997 and 1982. Not only that, both conference favorites have turned in the last week. Last week, San Francisco and Kansas City were favored to win their respective conferences. Although both teams won last week, both are underdogs this week.

Kansas City had been favorites in 14 straight playoff games this week (the longest streak in the Super Bowl era), including all 12 starts by Patrick Mahomes. Now they are home outsiders for the second time in Mahomes’ career. Kansas City also finished as a road favorite in Cincinnati earlier this season. It’s the second time in the Super Bowl era that a team has been considered an away favorite in a regular-season meeting and then a home underdog in a playoff rematch.

While the primary reason behind the line change is Patrick Mahomes’ injury status, the two teams have also gone in opposite directions against the spread of late. Cincinnati is 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games, including 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games. Joe Burrow is an amazing 18-1 ATS in his last 19 games as a under-seven-point favorite. Meanwhile, Kansas City sits at 7-11 ATS this season, the worst ATS percentage of any team participating in Conference Championship play since 1997.

Late on Sunday, Kyle Shanahan jeopardized his 7-1 ATS mark in the playoffs in Philadelphia. San Francisco has won 12 straight games, going 10-2 ATS in that span, including 6-1 ATS with Brock Purdy under middle. However, this would be the first time Purdy has been an outsider. On the other hand, Jalen Hurts is a perfect 7-0 ATS in his career as a single-digit home favorite.


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  • San Francisco is at 13-6 ATS this season (unders: 11-8). Philadelphia is at 9-9 ATS this season (overs: 10-8).

  • Kyle Shanahan is 7-1 ATS in playoff games, level on points with Doug Pederson for the best ATS record by any coach in the Super Bowl era (at least three games). He is 7-0 ATS in playoff games before the Super Bowl. San Francisco has played five straight playoff games, the longest active streak of any team.

  • Brock Purdy is 6-1 ATS in his career as a starter, all favorites. It is the fifth-longest streak by a quarterback since the 1970 merger (including playoffs).

  • San Francisco has won 12 straight games and has gone 10-2 ATS at that stretch, including 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games.

  • Kyle Shanahan is 19-10 ATS as a road underdog, including 12-3 ATS since 2019.

  • San Francisco is 12-2 ATS against conference opponents this season.

  • Jalen Hurts is 9-2-1 ATS as a career home favorite, including 7-0 ATS as a single-digit home favorite.

  • Five straight playoff games in Philadelphia have fallen below the total.

  • Overs have been 12-4-1 in the last 17 games of the NFC Championship.

  • The Unders were 2-0 in conference championship games last season after losing 8-2 in the previous five years.

  • Underdogs are 7-3 ATS in conference championship games for the past five seasons.

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  • Cincinnati is at 13-5 ATS this season (unders: 10-7-1). Kansas City is 7-11 ATS this season (unders: 10-8). Kansas City’s 11 ATS losses is the highest of any team participating in Conference Championship play during the Super Bowl era, and it is the worst ATS percentage of any team participating in the game since 1997 (Green Bay). None of the previous five teams that had coverage percentages below .400 that entered conference championship play have won the Super Bowl, and only in 1997 did Green Bay even reach the game.

  • Patrick Mahomes is a home underdog for the second time of his career Sunday (as of now) (losing at 4 as a 2.5-point home underdog to Buffalo in Week 6). Earlier this week, he had been favored in 47 of his 48 home starts, the second-highest percentage of any QB with at least 25 starts in the Super Bowl era (including playoffs). Only Roger Staubach (66 of 67 starts) has a higher proportion of favorite home starts (at least 25 starts).

  • Kansas City has been favored in 14 straight playoff games this week, the longest streak of any team in the Super Bowl era. Patrick Mahomes has never been an outsider in the playoffs. He’s the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to be preferred in each of his first 12 playoff starts this week. His 12-game playoff favorite streak is the second-longest streak in the Super Bowl era.

  • No team has been underdogs in a conference championship game at home since Philadelphia 2017. The previous two home underdogs in conference championships won the game outright (Philadelphia beat Minnesota as a 3-point underdog in 2017, Denver beat New England as a 3-point underdog in 2015).

  • Kansas City was a 2.5-point road favorite in Cincinnati in Week 13 when the two teams met during the regular season. Now Kansas City is a home underdog in their playoff meeting. It’s the second time in the Super Bowl era that a team has been considered an away favorite against an opponent in the regular season and then a home underdog for a playoff rematch. The other time was in the wild card round this season when Dallas was a street favorite in the playoffs in Tampa Bay after being an underdog at home in Week 1.

  • Cincinnati is 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games, including playoffs. Cincinnati is 13-5 ATS this season (second best) and 27-12 ATS since the start of last season.

  • Cincinnati is 19-1 ATS in his last 20 games when not putting up at least seven points with seven straight covers (Joe Burrow: 18-1 ATS in span).

  • Cincinnati has covered five straight road games (8-2 ATS on the road this season).

  • Joe Burrow is 5-1 ATS in his playoff career (4-0 ATS as an underdog, 1-1 ATS as a favorite).

  • Joe Burrow is 3-0 against Patrick Mahomes, all as an underdog.

  • Kansas City is 2-11 ATS in conference games this season.

  • Kansas City is 0-4 ATS with more than six rest days this season.

https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/35521182/nfl-conference-championship-betting-notes-philadelphia-eagles-kansas-city-chiefs NFL betting notes – Jalen Hurts remarkable at home

Emma Bowman

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