The NFL betting market has seen more volatility this week than any other week this season. Winter storms and freezing temperatures across the country create extreme conditions for some football matches.
It is expected that seven outdoor games will have extremely low temperatures, compounded by wind chill, creating arctic elements from 10 to minus 20 degrees. Those games could also include six backup quarterbacks, which only encourages the unknown and creates a softer market where oddsmakers have been more willing to shift their numbers throughout the week.
“It’s kind of a guessing game. You can’t just rely on the performance ratings,” SuperBook odds maker Jeff Sherman told ESPN, discussing the difficulty of posting odds on games with unique weather. “We’ll definitely pull a number if we respect the bettor.”
We are programmed to believe that the house always wins. That is certainly the case on the casino floor, given the undeniable mathematics of dice, a roulette wheel, or a deck of cards. Sports aren’t as clean as these table games, but the edge is usually still in the sportsbook.
However, when a game has more variables like bizarre weather and key injuries, the house lacks its usual advantage. These games, much like bowls, involve so much uncertainty that when you compare it to a conventional matchup with healthy rosters and normal weather, it essentially becomes apples and oranges.
“It’s not foolproof, but if you beat the market, you can have an advantage,” professional bettor Chuck Edel told ESPN, also sharing that he pays an assistant to bettor for every single college and NFL game. track game. “People who get the information first, whether it’s injuries or weather, will have much more advantageous positions. And if you’re doing your job, you can always get off the number and play the other side [if the weather forecast changes].”
This week has seven games with totals in the 30s, which is the most since 2011. Most of the totals have already moved significantly. For example, the Saints-Browns game opened at 38.5 and sharp money has moved the market to 32, which is the lowest NFL total since 2008.
The numbers you need to know
What a wild week for this highly anticipated showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 47). Dallas botched its ending last Sunday in Jacksonville, and now MVP candidate Jalen Hurts is out with the Eagles through injury. Total crap.
However, all tickets are redeemed the same, and now we need to find a betting edge. Any statistical reference is difficult as backup QB Gardner Minshew leads the way. However, teams with 9-1 or better who are at least 3-point underdogs are 4-16-4 against the spread and 2-22 right in the Super Bowl era. Basically, the betting market is often right this late in the season. Minshew is the fly in the ointment, however, but Dallas was a 2-point favorite before Hurts’ injury news broke.
It’s not a big game for me, though I’ll lay the points with Dallas. Minshew is a competent backup, but he’s not an NFL starter. Additionally, Hurts is an outstanding quarterback and does so much for this team. His absence will be felt more than adjusting the scoring. As long as the Cowboys approach this game with appropriate intensity and focus despite Hurt’s absence, America’s team should find cover against America’s quarterback, the mustachioed Minshew.
New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-3, 32)
Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland
This could be the coldest game of the weekend thanks to winds of 30mph with gusts of up to 60mph. There is also a potential for a few inches of snow. I imagine we’ll get a big dose of Taysom Hill at quarterback for the offense-challenged New Orleans, which has four straight games under the total. Deshaun Watson is gradually shedding the gridiron, but this Browns offense will still rely on ground play in these elements. Also, WR Chris Olave is on the road for the Saints. I’m under 32 but my favorite game is Cleveland as I’ll put a Dome team to shame in these crazy conditions.
Choice: Brown’s -3
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 34.5)
Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
This is another scenario where a dome team must endure brutal cold conditions. The Falcons also start with rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder, who will make his second career start after passing 97 yards last week. Atlanta is already a run-heavy offense, and that fits well with Baltimore, who will also start a backup QB in Tyler Huntley. However, he could be limited as he has a shoulder injury. Additionally, after losing in Cleveland last week, John Harbaugh said he wished he didn’t give up the run. I’ll take the Under and hope the Falcons defense, which is second worst in terms of efficiency, can do enough.
Tip: Under 34.5, Ravens -0.5 in 6-point teaser leg
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5, 40.5) with the Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
By now we know all about Tampa’s woes. With 3-10-1 ATS, the Bucs have the worst coverage percentage in the entire NFL. The best cure for this might be a third-string quarterback. Penn State product Trace McSorley will make his first career start for Arizona, and while he’ll be at home, that’s a tough one. The Bucs should get out of their funk and at least win the game, although Todd Bowles certainly looks lost far too often. But Arizona coach Cliff Kingsbury isn’t exactly locked down, so I’ll take Tampa for a teaser.
Tip: Bucs -1.5 in the 6-point teaser leg
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2, 38)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
Will this Raiders team really come to Pittsburgh in single digits and beat a Steelers team that will honor legend Franco Harris, who passed away this week? If so, hats off to them. However, I think the Raiders are sloppy and undisciplined which is why they blew so many big leads. I expect Pittsburgh to run all over the Vegas defense and pull off a win this week.
Selection: Steelers -2
Denver Broncos (-3, 36.5) at the Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Russell Wilson is expected to return and that’s enough for me to put points down the road. The Rams are a shell unto themselves, with Baker Mayfield being extremely limited. Additionally, the Rams announced that they have closed Aaron Donald for the remainder of the season. Denver’s offensive problems are well documented, but defense ranks third for efficiency. The Rams have a definite coaching advantage, but I was impressed with the Broncos’ performance last weekend and hope they bring a similar effort and intensity to LA
Choice: Broncos -3
https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/35307449/2022-nfl-week-16-betting-odds-cheat-sheet NFL Week 16 betting – Cowboys cover vs. Eagles; weather gives Browns edge