NFL Week 7 betting notes

Week 7 features several teams and players looking to continue their recent success as underdogs, including both New York City squads. Brian Daboll and the New York Giants are 4-0 outright as underdogs this season. Daboll looks to join Bill Cowher as the only coaches in the Super Bowl era to win in each of their first five games in the underdog role.

The New York Jets are in their smallest underdog role this season in Denver. The Jets are the second team in the Super Bowl era to have a winning record through six games despite being underdogs in every game. If Brett Rypien starts and the Jets close as favorites, it will be the first time the Jets are road favorites since Week 4 of 2020, when Rypien made his only other NFL start.

The Atlanta Falcons have also been underdogs in every game this season, covering every time. They look to match the 2021 Dallas Cowboys and the 2018 Kansas City Chiefs for the longest cover streaks to begin a season in the last decade.

Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers are underdogs for the first time all season. No quarterback in the Super Bowl era has a better cover percentage or winning percentage as an underdog than Garoppolo (min. 15 starts).

The biggest underdog to win all season came last week when the Pittsburgh Steelers (+9.5) upset Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This week, the Buccaneers are the first double-digit road favorite all season against the Carolina Panthers. Tom Brady is 13-1 ATS after losing as at least a seven-point favorite in his previous game. Underdogs continue to cash this season at a 58.4 percent rate. It is the eighth straight season underdogs have been over .500 through Week 6. Unders are even more profitable, cashing 60.2 percent of the time, which is the highest over or under percentage through Week 6 since 1991.

Season Notes

  • Best teams ATS: Atlanta (6-0), New York Giants (5-1), Buffalo (4-1-1)

  • Worst team ATS: Carolina (1-5); 10 teams are 2-4 ATS

  • Best over teams: Cleveland (5-1), Detroit (4-1)

  • Best under teams: Seven tied at 5-1 (Buffalo, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco, Denver, Cincinnati)

  • Underdogs: 52-37-3 ATS (.584)

  • Road teams: 48-43-3 ATS (.527)

  • Unders: 56-37-1 (.602)


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  • Arizona is 4-11 ATS as a home favorite under Kliff Kingsbury (0-5 ATS past five instances).

  • Arizona has lost eight straight home games outright (1-7 ATS).

  • Four straight Arizona games have gone under the total. Three straight New Orleans games have gone over the total.

  • New Orleans is 0-3 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3.

  • New Orleans is 0-2 ATS on the road this season after going 35-14 ATS from 2016-21.

  • Thursday night unders are 5-1 this season and 30-19 since 2019. Road teams are 30-19 ATS on Thursday night games since 2019.

  • Prime-time unders are 13-6 this season and are hitting at a 58.4 percent rate over the last four seasons.


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  • Green Bay is 10-1 outright and ATS after a loss under Matt LaFleur. However, the only loss came last week against the New York Jets.

  • Green Bay is 0-3 ATS in its past three games. The longest ATS losing streak of Aaron Rodgers’ career is four games.

  • Washington is 1-4 ATS in its past five games. Four straight Washington games have gone under the total.

  • Washington went 6-2 ATS in Taylor Heinicke’s last eight starts last season after he started 1-6 ATS last season.

  • Teams favored by at least four points were just 3-3 last week and are now 29-17-1 this season (.628). That is tracking to be the worst winning percentage by four-point favorites in a season since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.

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Tyler Fulghum explains why he’s not expecting a lot of points from an Aaron Rodgers vs. Carson Wentz matchup.


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  • Tom Brady is 13-1 ATS (12-2 SU) in his career after losing the previous game as at least a seven-point favorite.

  • Tampa Bay is the first double-digit road favorite this season. Teams favored by at least seven points on the road are 0-2-1 outright this season. The previous largest spread in a road game this season was last week when Tampa Bay lost as a 9.5-point favorite in Pittsburgh, which is the largest upset so far this season.

  • Last season, six double-digit home underdogs won outright, tied for the most in any season in the Super Bowl era. Double-digit home underdogs were 10-5 ATS and 6-9 outright (+37.5 units).

  • Carolina is a league-worst 1-5 ATS this season. They are 3-17 outright and ATS in their past 20 games.

  • Tampa Bay has covered all four meetings against Carolina since acquiring Tom Brady.

  • Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS in its past four games.

  • Tampa Bay games are 5-1 to the under this season. Four of Carolina’s past five games also went under.

  • Unders in division games are 22-10 this season.

  • Teams favored by at least four points were just 3-3 last week and are now 29-17-1 this season (.628). That is tracking to be the worst winning percentage by four-point favorites in a season since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.


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  • Atlanta is 6-0 ATS this season, the only undefeated team ATS in the league this season. They are the third team in the last decade to start at least 6-0 ATS (2021 Dallas and 2018 Kansas City both started 7-0 ATS). Atlanta has been an underdog in every game this season. The only other teams to be underdogs in every game are the New York Jets (6) and Houston (5).

  • Cincinnati has covered four straight games after starting 0-2 ATS.

  • Five of Cincinnati’s past six games went under the total. Three straight Atlanta games have gone under the total.

  • Joe Burrow is 3-3 outright as a favorite of at least six points (2-4 ATS).

  • Teams favored by at least four points were just 3-3 last week and are now 29-17-1 this season (.628). That is tracking to be the worst winning percentage by four-point favorites in a season since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.


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  • New York is 4-0 outright as an underdog this season. Brian Daboll is the third coach in the Super Bowl era to win outright in each of his first four games as an underdog, joining Bill Cowher (five) and Josh McDaniels (four).

  • New York is 5-1 ATS this season.

  • Daniel Jones is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog (5-12 outright).

  • Jacksonville is 2-10 outright and ATS in its past 12 games as a favorite (five straight losses).

  • Since 2020, Jacksonville is 2-8 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3.

  • Jacksonville is 0-7 ATS against NFC teams since the start of last season.

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Joe Fortenbaugh breaks down the reasons he’s picking the Giants to cover against the Jaguars in Week 7.


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  • Baltimore has covered five straight meetings, including all four since Cleveland hired Kevin Stefanski. Cleveland is 2-11 ATS in division games under Kevin Stefanski.

  • Cleveland games are 5-1 to the over this season. Three straight Baltimore games have gone under the total.

  • Baltimore is 0-2-1 ATS this season at home.

  • Cleveland is 0-3 ATS in its past three games.

  • Teams favored by at least four points were just 3-3 last week and are now 29-17-1 this season (.628). That is tracking to be the worst winning percentage by four-point favorites in a season since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.

  • Unders in division games are 22-10 this season.


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  • Detroit is 13-7 ATS as an underdog under Dan Campbell, including 12-3 ATS as an underdog of at least four points.

  • Detroit is 9-1 ATS in its past 10 games after a bye (1-0 ATS under Dan Campbell).

  • Dallas is 11-3 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season.

  • Dallas is 5-1 ATS after a loss since the start of last season.

  • Detroit is 0-10-1 outright on the road under Dan Campbell (6-5 ATS).

  • Teams favored by at least four points were just 3-3 last week and are now 29-17-1 this season (.628). That is tracking to be the worst winning percentage by four-point favorites in a season since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.


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  • Tennessee is 4-0 ATS after a bye under Mike Vrabel, winning all four games by at least 14 points (20.5 PPG). Tennessee is 6-0-1 ATS after a bye since 2015.

  • Indianapolis games have gone under the total in 10 of their past 11 games. Their past six road games have gone under.

  • Tennessee has covered three straight games.

  • Tennessee has covered four straight meetings against Indianapolis, including their Week 4 matchup. Over the past 10 seasons, when teams meet twice in a five-week span, the team to cover the first meeting is 32-53-2 ATS in the rematch.

  • Indianapolis is 7-1 ATS in its past eight games as an underdog (2-0 outright and ATS this season).

  • Unders in division games are 22-10 this season.


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New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-1), Sunday at 4:05 ET

  • New York has been an underdog in each of its first six games this season. They are the second team since the merger to be underdogs in each of their first six games and still have a winning record (2001 Cleveland).

  • New York is 3-0 outright and ATS on the road this season.

  • New York has covered three straight games and four of its past five.

  • Denver games are 5-1 to the under this season.

  • New York is 4-1 ATS under Robert Saleh when the line is between +3 and -3 (four straight covers).

  • Denver is 0-3 ATS as a favorite this season (1-2 SU).

  • If Brett Rypien starts, it would be his second career start. He beat the Jets as a one-point home underdog in Week 4 of 2020. That game is also the last time the Jets closed as road favorites.


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  • Las Vegas has not been at least a seven-point favorite since Week 13 of 2020. This is their largest home favorite role since Week 15 of 2019 when the then-Oakland Raiders lost to the Jaguars as seven-point favorites. Derek Carr is 1-4 ATS in his career as at least a seven-point favorite.

  • Las Vegas is 0-5 ATS in its past five games off a bye.

  • Since 2019, Las Vegas is 5-14 ATS as a favorite. Derek Carr is 16-25-1 ATS as a favorite in his career.

  • Three straight Las Vegas games have gone over the total.

  • Davis Mills is 3-0-1 ATS as a road underdog of 10 points or less.

  • Teams favored by at least four points were just 3-3 last week and are now 29-17-1 this season (.628). That is tracking to be the worst winning percentage by four-point favorites in a season since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.


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  • Pete Carroll is 51-33-2 ATS as an underdog with Seattle including playoffs.

  • Geno Smith is 11-3 ATS in his past 14 starts (6-3 ATS with Seattle).

  • Over the past five seasons, Los Angeles is 10-20-1 ATS as a home favorite.

  • Three of Los Angeles’ first six games have landed within a point of the closing line, most in the league.


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  • Jimmy Garoppolo is 16-4 ATS in his career as an underdog including the playoffs (14-6 outright). Both are the best marks of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era with at least 15 starts as an underdog.

  • San Francisco has covered six straight games following a loss.

  • Under Andy Reid, Kansas City is 25-11-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 (9-3-1 ATS with Patrick Mahomes).

  • Kansas City is 1-5 ATS in its past six games as a favorite (0-3 ATS in last three).

  • San Francisco games are 5-1 to the under this season.

  • Kansas City has covered the past six meetings.


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  • Miami is 0-3 outright and ATS in its past three games after starting 3-0 outright and ATS. Tua Tagovailoa did not finish any of the previous three games after starting and finishing the first three. Tagovailoa is 15-9-1 ATS in his career.

  • Over the past six seasons, Miami is 11-3-1 ATS as a home favorite.

  • Mike Tomlin is 45-26-3 ATS as an underdog and 38-36 outright. Pittsburgh is the only team with a winning record outright in that span. They have now been underdogs in six of their first seven games for the first time since 1990.

  • Teams favored by at least four points were just 3-3 last week and are now 29-17-1 this season (.628). That is tracking to be the worst winning percentage by four-point favorites in a season since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.

  • Prime-time unders are 13-6 this season and are hitting at a 58.4% rate over the past four seasons.


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  • Teams favored by at least four points were just 3-3 last week and are now 29-17-1 this season (.628). That is tracking to be the worst winning percentage by four-point favorites in a season since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.

  • Justin Fields is 4-10 ATS as an underdog and 2-5 ATS as underdog of at least seven points.

  • New England is 62-32 ATS in October under Bill Belichick with five straight covers.

  • New England was 4-1 ATS as at least a seven-point favorite last season.

  • New England is 7-2-1 ATS in its past 10 games as a favorite.

  • Bailey Zappe would be the third rookie quarterback drafted in the fourth round or later to be at least a seven-point favorite since 2000 (Dak Prescott, Gardner Minshew). Only Prescott was favored by more than seven points (-7.5 vs Cleveland in 2016; won by 25).

  • Prime-time unders are 13-6 this season and are hitting at a 58.4 percent rate over the past four seasons.

https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/34835636/nfl-week-7-betting-notes-49ers-jets-falcons-riding-impressive-streaks NFL Week 7 betting notes

Emma Bowman

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