Scotland’s climate is changing at an alarming rate and average temperatures are reaching levels not expected before 2050

Scotland’s climate is changing faster than expected, according to a new study.

Average February temperatures have already reached some 2050 forecasts, according to Boffins of the James Hutton Institute in Aberdeen.

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They found that in certain parts of Scotland temperatures rose by 2.5°C in February – with an average of 16.9°C over the period 1960-1989 and rising to 19.4°C over the three decades of 1990 –2019.

The study, carried out on behalf of the Scottish Government, says that the increase in winter rainfall has also already exceeded forecasts for 2050.

Researchers also warned of an increase in water scarcity in the near future, saying it could threaten agriculture, forestry, animal habitats and hamper the country’s efforts to restore peatlands.

It comes as the UK, including Scotland, experienced its hottest June on record and July was recorded as the hottest month in the world.

Daily global sea surface temperatures also broke records in early August.

Dr. Mike Rivington, who led Scottish research into climate change and extreme trends at the institute, said: “We are now in the midst of climate breakdown: our ecosystems that regulate climate and enable food production are deteriorating and at risk of collapse as we do so Continue to increase greenhouse gas emissions and further accelerate warming.

“It has never been more important than now to understand the scale of the threat and how quickly we must act.”

“Accelerating climate change and biodiversity loss on a global scale could push us past important tipping points, the crossing of which would be irreversible.

“The fact that we have already experienced some of the predicted climate changes in Scotland suggests that climate change is accelerating.

“This will have global impacts, affecting trade and undermining the stability of economies, while reducing our own adaptability, for example in domestic food and the water, energy and natural services we receive from today’s ecosystems.”

Mairi McAllan, Cabinet Secretary for Transport, Net Zero and a Just Transition, added: “These findings underline that the climate emergency is not a distant threat – it is with us today.”

“Storms have hit Scotland in recent months and 2023 is expected to be the hottest year on record.

“The impacts of climate change are affecting families, communities and businesses across Scotland.

“That’s why we’re taking action to make Scotland more resilient in the face of climate change.”

The research was presented to the Scottish Government in two separate reports entitled ‘Climate trends and future projections in Scotland’ and ‘Climate extremes in Scotland’.

As well as examining past trends, the reports take a look at what Scotland can expect in the future, based on a series of 12 climate projections up to 2080.

The number of consecutive dry days is also expected to increase in drier months, including September.

Dr. Rivington said: “Our climate is changing and that has many impacts.”

“It will increase stress on species and habitats and affect the functioning of ecosystems.”

“Without fully functioning, healthy ecosystems, agriculture and other ways nature supports society and the economy will be hindered.

“Threats include water shortages reducing agricultural productivity and the risk of water supplies becoming scarce at times throughout the year.”

“Less and warmer water in streams impacts river health and water quality due to higher concentrations of pollutants, but also increases the risk of winter flooding due to increased rainfall.”

He added: “Forewarned is forearmed and the analysis is enormously valuable if acted upon.”

“Adaptation plans must take into account the complexity of floods and droughts in the same year or even the same season, but we can adapt to better manage these risks.”

“For example, we could capture and store more excess rainfall from the winter months for use in the summer; This applies not only to technology and reservoirs, but also to land management in our water catchment areas.”

“Farms can increase organic matter in soils, allowing them to store more water for periods of drought. We can also use the knowledge to plan better and conduct better monitoring, e.g. B. to raise awareness of wildfire risk and adjust seasonal management guidelines for Muirburn.”

Ms McAllan added: “In January we will publish a draft of our ambitious National Adaptation Plan to address Scotland’s climate risks.”

“We are making Scotland more resilient to flooding by providing £150m of additional funding for flood risk management over the course of this Parliament, on top of our annual funding of £42m, and by consulting on a new flood defense strategy in the new year.”

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