This is not an optimistic episode. Michael Kofman speculates that the war may be at its most dangerous stage. Why is that? Ukraine’s casualties and ammunition shortages are beginning to show as Russia gains some operational advantages in Donbass. Additionally, Russia’s efforts to fill its manpower gaps have been partially successful, without relying primarily on conscripts and conducting large-scale mobilization. Ryan and Mike speculate that this war will ultimately be decided by whichever country can hold out the longest in terms of economy, logistics, materiel, and political will. And Ukraine’s perseverance is closely tied to the West’s will to continue supporting Ukraine with arms and other supplies in a war that could drag on for months, if not years.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/the-most-dangerous-phase-for-ukraine/ The Most Dangerous Phase for Ukraine?