The prospects for democratization in the medium term are poor, not only because of inflation, a slowing economy, rampant crime, the southern border crisis and cultural conflicts. The party must also contend with President Biden’s lousy approval ratings, a generic Republican electoral advantage and a growing sense that Mr. Biden is weak, incompetent and too old.
Then there are trends in voter registration in battleground states. Take Florida. In 2016, Democrats had a 330,428 registration advantage over Republicans, but Donald Trump still won, as did Senator Marco Rubio. The Democrat lead shrank to 257,175 in 2018 and 97,215 in 2020. Today, Republicans outnumber Democrats by 175,911 — the first time in Florida history that the GOP has led in registrations.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/voter-registration-shows-democrats-peril-midterms-swing-states-independents-primary-general-turnout-gop-11657741640 Voter Registration Shows Democrats’ Peril